Interesting first poll taking in new Govt

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Opinion

The first poll since the coalition Government was sworn in at the end of last month identifies two significant gainers, New Zealand First and Te Pāti Māori, two losers in Act and the Green Party, and numbers that would deliver power to the same three-way coalition.

Curia’s poll for corporate clients was conducted a little over a week ago, from December 3-5. Interestingly it also had Prime Minister Christopher Luxon falling three points in the preferred PM stakes since its last poll in November, to 30 percent, while Labour leader Chris Hipkins was up four points to 22 percent. A month earlier, in the Curia poll completed 10 days before the election, Luxon was on 29 percent as preferred PM and Hipkins 27 percent.

Most interesting, though, are solid gains for the two parties at opposing ends of the race debate sparked by the new Government’s policies in relation to Māori, te reo and te Tiriti o Waitangi — and whose leaders have been the most vociferous in that debate.

NZ First was up two points to 8.1 percent; in Curia’s final poll before the election it was on 6.9 percent; its party vote at the election was 6.1 percent.

Te Pāti Māori received 5.0 percent support in the latest poll, up from 3.5 percent in November and 3.7 percent in Curia’s October poll; its party vote in the election was 3.1 percent.

Act is also behind policies causing concern for Māori, especially its Treaty Principles Bill, but leader David Seymour’s more intellectual arguments don’t seem to have found as much favour as the rhetoric of NZ First’s Winston Peters and Shane Jones. Support for Act in Curia’s post-election polling has fallen two points to 6.2 percent (it polled 9.1 percent in early October and its party vote at the election was 8.6 percent).

The fact NZ First took advantage of holding the balance of power to gain an equal status to Act in the coalition might also be a factor in the two parties’ switch in fortunes. Peters’ continuing his attacks on the media will be pleasing some people too.

The latest Curia numbers would give National 46 seats, NZ First 10 and Act eight — 64 seats in total and a majority. Their actual seats in Parliament now total 68, with National having 49 MPs, Act 11 and NZ First 8.

There was a minor shift for the major parties, with National down half a point from the November Curia poll to 36.5 percent (it won 38.1 percent at the election), while Labour was up half a point to 28.8 percent (its party vote in the election was 26.9 percent).

The Greens remain the third most popular party on the latest Curia numbers, but fell three points to 10.8 percent from strong support registered in the first Curia poll after what was their best ever election result, winning three electorate seats and their largest share of the party vote, 11.6 percent.