Heavy rain watch issued

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

The Gisborne/Tairāwhiti region is once again under threat from heavy rain sweeping down from the north.

MetService yesterday issued a Heavy Rain Watch, which may well be further upgraded as more certainty is gained of the direction and intensity of the incoming weather.

MetService’s outlook says a low is forecast to move towards the North Island from the north but “there is still uncertainty between the computer models as to where the low will track”.

On Sunday and Monday, “a humid east to north-east flow is expected to affect Gisborne and Wairoa, bringing the risk of a period of significant heavy rain”.

The agency has moderate confidence that warning amounts of rain will fall about northern Gisborne/Tairāwhiti, as well as Great Barrier Island, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty, and low confidence a rain warning will be needed for Northland, Auckland and Waikato.

In addition, MetService says for Sunday and Monday there is low confidence that (a change to) east to south-east winds could reach severe gale about exposed parts of  Gisborne/Tairāwhiti and the other areas mentioned.

Because of the uncertainty of the event, MetService decided to issue a Heavy Rain Watch and advises people to stay up to date with the latest forecasts as they are likely to be upgraded and more regions added.

The watch for Gisborne covers from 3pm Sunday to 6am Monday.

By next Tuesday, the sub-tropical low should continue to move away to the south-east.

Meanwhile, the trough that has been moving up the country could bring strong or gale-force south to south-west winds in many places, and cooler showery weather.

For Wednesday, MetService says there is low possibility of warning amounts of rain for northern Gisborne/Tairāwhiti.