Expect Peters to maximise leverage

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Opinion

As we head to the poll that matters tomorrow, the phoenix of New Zealand politics Winston Peters is right where he wants to be — his party polling consistently over 5 percent  and him the focus of attention, highly likely to have a pivotal hand in the formation of the next government.

The NZ Herald’s final poll of polls yesterday found National and Act with a 28.5 percent chance of being able to form their preferred coalition government after the election — just the two of them — but a 99.8 percent chance of having the numbers to do so with NZ First added in.

Despite a late lift in support for the left bloc this week, the poll of polls still finds a 0 percent chance of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori being able to form the next government.

That calculus would change if NZ First was to come in below the 5 percent threshold, but it hasn’t polled lower than that in any survey since early September and the trend has been of rising support, to 6 percent or more over the past three weeks.

National leader Christopher Luxon was at his most positive yet in talking to media yesterday about the prospect of needing to work with Peters; still far from enthusiastic, but “very confident I’ll be able to do business with (Peters). I can work with whoever.”

Most commentators are taking Peters and Labour leader Chris Hipkins at their word, that there is no possibility of them working together after this election, but the general public aren’t so sure. A Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll last week asked 1000 voters whether they believed Peters when he said he would not work with Labour again; 55 percent of respondents said no, 27 percent said yes and 17 percent were unsure.

Peters first said he wouldn’t work with Labour again in November last year, and has repeated that message throughout the election campaign; Hipkins has been saying since late August this year that Labour wouldn’t work with NZ First after the election “under any circumstances”.

It is the first time in the 30 years since he founded NZ First — after resigning from the then-governing National Party — that Peters has narrowed his options prior to an election. Being prepared to go with either National or Labour previously has strengthened his hand in coalition negotiations. He was in coalition with Jim Bolger’s National from 1996-1998, agreed a confidence and supply arrangement with Labour under Helen Clark from 2005-2008, and famously did a deal with the second-most popular party at the 2017 election to make Jacinda Ardern prime minister.

While his hand won’t be quite as strong if NZ First is in a “kingmaker” position after this election, the wily Peters can be expected to maximise the leverage that he does have.