Cold southerlies dominated in March, April looking dry

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

The latest weather outlooks from the two main agencies both pick below average rainfall for the Gisborne-East Coast region.

Rainfall totals for the district are likely to be near-to-below-normal (MetService) this month, while Niwa says rainfall for April to the end of June has a 40 percent chance of being below average and a 35 percent chance of being about normal.

Weather data for March show the month was dominated by cold southerly winds for 15 days, with high pressure systems staying south, even though El Nino is weakening.

There were only 13 days of winds from the north, north-west and west.

Both MetService and Niwa agree that after a cold hangover from March, there will be a brief spell of warmer temperatures and a dose of rain mid-month.

However, the further outlook is for a colder, drier second half for April.

Niwa is predicting the two months to the end of June will see soil moisture levels still below normal for the district (a 50 percent chance), while MetService says more normal autumn weather should prevail by the end of this month.

Local records indicate that a return to more north-westerly winds could indicate the loosening grip of El Nino and weather that is more “normal” than that produced by the El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation.