Challenging year to end with warmth

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Opinion

A well-deserved summer break has begun for most people, with excitement building in households around the region as families gather and children eagerly await the gifts and whānau fun of Christmas Day.

After a year of terrible weather in this region, at least we are ending it on a warm note . . . although showers are forecast to put a little dampener on things at times over the next week.

A switch to northwesterlies today brings us warm, humid air down from the sub-tropics. A few showers are forecast for the afternoon tomorrow and on Christmas morning, with temperatures in the high-20s through to Tuesday before a southerly change on Wednesday. Northerlies are forecast to return along with temperatures in the mid-to-high 20s for the final few days of the year.

The Niwa seasonal climate outlook through to the end of February is for temperatures to probably be above average, with spells of hot conditions, and less rainfall than normal likely for the first two months of 2024. Wind speeds are expected to be stronger than normal with “The Little Boy”, El Niño, serving up more frequent and occasionally strong westerly and northwesterly flows.

While fears of a major El Niño-driven drought this summer have dissipated as bouts of heavy rain continued into the end of a record wet year, this El Niño is expected to last longer than normal — probably through autumn — so there is still a risk of dryness and a late-summer/autumn drought.

However, it has been far from a classic El Niño event and that could continue. Normally this big climate driver involves warm equatorial water piling up in the eastern Pacific, but this season scientists have observed warmth several degrees above normal right across the Pacific basin. Because of this, circulation patterns are a bit different and lingering west Pacific warmth means rain systems can still reach us at times.

Earlier this month Niwa forecaster Ben Noll said we might have stretches of dryness for three, four or five weeks, but then that might be followed up by “a different flavour of weather” for a week or two that takes the edge off.

With lots of green vegetation still, thanks to the continuing rain, the district remains in an open fire season as we end the year — with the fire danger level seen as moderate. Hot and windy conditions are expected to dry things out quickly, though. Fire and Emergency NZ is encouraging people not to light fires over the festive season, or if they do to be vigilant and have a hose ready on standby.

It has been a challenging year for everyone, with many people especially hard hit by the severe weather events. It’s now time to relax, enjoy quality family time, and recharge. Merry Christmas to all.