Centre right pushes ahead in Verian poll

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Opinion

With so many things going wrong for Labour over recent months, not to mention a tetchy public feeling the pain of high inflation and a wobbly economy, the most surprising takeaway from political polling had been the failure of National and its leader Christopher Luxon to capitalise fully on this as we headed towards the general election on October 14.

Well, that might have changed.

Most recent polls have indicated a tight race, but with National and Act just having enough support to form a government. Then the 1News Verian (formerly Kantar) poll out on Monday night gave the centre-right numbers that, if repeated on election day, would deliver National and Act a comfortable majority of 65 seats in Parliament — while Labour had dropped into the dreaded 20s, down four percentage points from the last Verian poll a month ago to 29 percent.

It was the worst poll result for Labour in six years, since just before Jacinda Ardern took over the leadership of the party less than two months out from the 2017 election.

There is also an ugly trend line for Labour in this poll: recording 38 percent support in late January after Chris Hipkins took over (a five-point bump from late 2022); then 36 percent in March; May, 35 percent; July, 33 percent; August, 29 percent.

National was up two points to 37 percent support and Act was up one on 13 percent in this latest poll, conducted from August 12-16. Verian had the Green Party up two on 12 percent, NZ First knocking on the door to re-enter Parliament with 4 percent and Te Pāti Māori steady on 3 percent.

Some of the shine seems to have come off Hipkins personally as well, dropping three points in the preferred prime minister stakes to 21 percent, while Luxon was steady on 20 percent.

That question tends to heavily favour incumbency. It has also been a bugbear for National and Luxon as he lagged first Ardern and then Hipkins by what was often a wide margin, prompting questions lately over whether the party would do better if his deputy, Nicola Willis, was in charge.

While Luxon’s touring of the country since late May doesn’t seem to have shifted the dial in terms of personal support, he is noticeably more relaxed and on-message in front of the camera — relentlessly so when it comes to the issue that is front of mind for half of all voters, the cost of living crisis.

Hipkins remains optimistic Labour can fight back and win the election, but admitted yesterday they have “a big climb ahead”. He has adopted the “underdog” tag lately beloved of sports teams, and adds there will be more scrutiny on National’s policies now it’s “the front runner”.

Another important number in the poll is the 12 percent who didn’t know how they would vote or would not say.