Campaigns coincide in France, at home

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Opinion

Will the Rugby World Cup have an impact on the coming national election? That is the fascinating question being raised again after two major upsets at the weekend.

First the All Blacks suffered their heaviest loss ever to the Springboks, going down 35-7 to a team that was physically committed and benefited from ill-discipline by New Zealand.

Then in what would be one of the greatest days for Pasifika rugby, Fiji defeated England 30-22 at the home of English rugby, Twickenham.

On the face of it these otherwise  stunning results are meaningless, with the cup itself not due to start until the end of next week. But they foreshadow a strong possibility that this Rugby World Cup in France is going to be one of the hardest to pick, and how the All Blacks perform during pool play will provide a welcome or unwelcome distraction from the election — depending on your point of view.

Previous studies have shown that reaction to an All Blacks loss has a negative effect on the significant part of the population who are obsessed by the game. This in turn is said to be negative for the governing party.

So the heavy defeat on Saturday will not have been welcome for Labour, which the polls have now established as the underdog for October 14.

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has come out firing as he launches into campaign mode, pushing aside any nice guy image with strong attacks against National and Act.

He has adapted something of a counter to National leader Christopher Luxon’s repeated warnings of a coalition of chaos, by warning that a National-Act government will be one of the most right wing ever in the country’s history.

Like a good Hutt Valley scrapper, Hipkins is attacking the conservative wing of National — pointing out that  Luxon and other senior MPs have voted against women’s and gay rights and the establishment of Māori wards in local government.

Under his leadership over the past seven months he has continuously moved away from the caring image fostered by Jacinda Ardern.

The general opinion of political pundits now is that the election is National’s to lose and all it has to do is avoid any silly mistakes.

In that Luxon might be wise to have a quiet word with Act leader David Seymour, who caused concern and some outrage with a joke about blowing up the Ministry of Pacific Peoples. Against that, however, Seymour knows what his supporters want to hear as is shown by Act’s steady polling.

The politicians will be watching the coming Rugby World Cup matches even more closely than usual, and Hipkins will be looking for Ian Foster to lift the country’s spirits ASAP.