On Sunday, the low continues to move away to the east of the country, with the southeasterly rain clearing.
The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research also notes a “subtropical low moving to the north-east of the North Island” bringing a change to the weather.
Niwa forecaster Ben Noll says it looks like this will bring some rain, but “might stay just far enough offshore that we don’t receive copious amounts”.
Most weather models show the low bringing onshore rain to the Gisborne East Coast area — particularly the coast north of Gisborne.
Meanwhile, climate scientists are assessing the likelihood of an El Nino developing over winter.
United Kingdom and US scientists are worrying about the possibility of a major El Nino, which would bring drought to regions such as the Gisborne-East Coast. The remnants of La Nina still linger in the southwestern Pacific but some climatologists are pessimistic about a strong El Nino emerging.
Locally, MetService and Niwa have issued medium-term forecasts for the next month to three months.
For the Gisborne district, Niwa says temperatures are equally likely to be near average (a 40 percent chance) or above average (a 45 percent chance).
Niwa also warns some sub-tropical or tropical low pressure systems could still track near the Gisborne-East Coast region, occasionally increasing the risk for heavy rain.
MetService says climate prediction models are increasingly pointing to El Nino developing in the latter half of winter and into spring, “which would signal a colder and more unsettled spring as frequent southwesterlies spread across the country”.
