Birthdays tend to be bittersweet for some people. They're certainly cause for celebration, but they also bring us a year closer to whatever comes next.
This week marks the seven-year anniversary of this bull market. In March 2009, the S&P500 share market index in the US bottomed at a closing level of 677 points. This was a 56.8 per cent decline from the 2007 peak, about 18 months earlier.
Since then, the S&P500 has rallied 196 per cent, making it about three times higher at roughly 2000 points. If you include the dividends the US market is up an even more impressive 243 per cent. The NZX50 fell 44.2 per cent during the financial crisis, and has risen 165.4 per cent since the 2009 lows. Our rebound wasn't quite as strong, but neither was our decline.
Interestingly, while US share prices are now 27.8 per cent above the 2007 peak, if we ignore dividends NZ shares are just 1.0 per cent higher.
So is this a birthday worth celebrating, or is it simply a reminder we're one year closer to the music inevitably stopping?