A leading shipping executive refuses to be drawn into an argument about whether the port of Tauranga or Auckland should become the North Island hub for the larger container vessels.
Julian Bevis, the New Zealand managing director of the world's biggest shipping line Maersk, believes there is a future role for both ports.
"The country's economic centre of gravity will be the Auckland/Hamilton/Tauranga triangle and I take the view that this area needs two ports - not just for containers but for other business as well. Both ports can make a living," he said.
Mr Bevis does concede that bigger container ships, providing better economies of scale, will start arriving in New Zealand, and a greater percentage of cargo will move through fewer ports.
"Does it mean this will end up with one or two ports, I don't think so. It's simplistic to suggest some ports will fade away.
"There will be a role for regional ports and they can still have international services such as logs, break bulk, oil and cruise ships. They will also play a supplementary role by feeding cargo to the main ports," he said.
Mr Bevis suggested the country will see the emergence of two tiers of ports; three or four will form the A league, namely Auckland, Tauranga, Lyttelton or Port Chalmers (Dunedin).
He said the role of shipping lines in determining the future of ports was overstated. "We go where the cargo is and concentrate on giving the right level of service."
Three years ago, Maersk Line decided to use Ports of Auckland, instead of Tauranga, as the North Island hub for its main container services - South-East Asia to Europe via Malaysia and the United States east coast to Europe.
Tauranga still retained some Maersk services and Mr Bevis said he was keen have a foot in both camps.
"It's wrong to see it as a case for one or the other; it's a case of using both. As the northern triangle grows in importance economically, we will have a bit more (services) in Tauranga," he said.
Currently, Maersk vessels call into Port of Tauranga on five schedules - Oceania Americas Services (OC1), West Coast North America (southbound and northbound), Pacific Islands Express, and North & East Asia Service (NZ3).
Maersk has 13 chartered ships and four of its own calling into New Zealand ports.
Mr Bevis said Maersk would consider the strength of trade over the next two years before making any decision about introducing larger container vessels into New Zealand waters.
"World commodity prices are good and New Zealand exports are not doing so badly. We are coming into the peak export season and it looks like trade is going to be quite good," he said.
Mr Bevis expected "steady growth" of 2-3 per cent a year in trade. He said import volumes were getting back to where they were 2 years ago.
Also, worldwide international trade had shown a strong recovery this year and Maersk had undertaken a major programme of cost reductions, Mr Bevis said.
During the height of the global financial crisis, 10-12 per cent of the world container ship fleet was idle. It has now fallen to about 2 per cent.
In the run-up to the export season (March to early June), Mr Bevis called on exporters to contact Maersk and book space early to avoid disappointment.
"We want to build the right relationships with our customers and provide certainty for them, and for us. We can't afford to put on tonnage on spec, but shipping lines are becoming more adept at adjusting and meeting demand."
Mr Bevis said during the peak of the exporting season Maersk would have an additional six to eight sailings from Tauranga to South-East Asia and linking up with the main east and west services to Europe.
He said Maersk would expand its coverage to the growth markets in Asia, particularly China, and by the 2011/12 peak exporting season it might change its pattern of services from New Zealand with larger container vessels.
"Either way, we will increase services in Tauranga commensurate to the demand," Mr Bevis said.
The average size of vessels calling into New Zealand have up to 3000 TEUs (20 foot-equivalent containers) onboard, and Maersk sends ships carrying between 4000-4500 TEUs.
Mr Bevis said the next step up would be 5000-5500 TEU container ships and, depending on demand, even up to 6000 TEUs.
"But that's some years away. Still, ports shouldn't ignore that. They need to make plans to dredge and provide additional equipment to prepare for the larger ships."
Hampshire-born Mr Bevis was the South Asia line and operations manager for Maersk, based in Mumbai, before moving to New Zealand in 2008.
He had lived in Mumbai and was P&0 Nedlloyd regional director for Middle East, South Asia and Africa before it was taken over by Maersk.
Mr Bevis was first in New Zealand between 1975-77 when he was seconded to Overseas Containers and helped initiate P&O's new container service.
Shipping boss says city's port will form part of top tier
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